New natural gas (603393): “endogenous + extension” results in a sharp increase in performance The 2018 annual report exceeded market expectations
Event 2018, the company achieved operating income16.
32 ppm, an increase of 60 in ten years.
58%; net profit attributable to mother is 3.
350,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.
88%; net profit after return to mother 2.
10 ‰, a decrease of 11 per year.
74%, budget benefit 2.
Our Analysis and Judgment (1) “Endogenous Growth + Outward Expansion” Drives a Significant Increase in Revenue The traditional city gas business maintains steady growth.
In 2018, the company’s urban gas sector achieved revenue11.
71 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.
Among them, in terms of natural gas supply, gas sales amounted to 6.
50 billion cubic meters (+17 compared with the same period last year).
8%); the average price benefited from the increase in the proportion of industrial gas, which increased slightly to 1.
48 yuan / party (2017.1.
46 yuan / square), contributing 9 income.
630,000 yuan, an increase of 19.
In terms of home installation business, the increase in the maturity of the regional market has led to an improvement in the number of new users. The number of installations completed in 20183.
110,000 households, down 26 before.
However, the installation unit price increased from 4,972 yuan / household in 2017 to 6,704 yuan / household, realizing business income2.
08,000 yuan, stable for one year.
Asian American Energy operates well, and mergers and acquisitions have led to a significant increase in total revenue.
In 2018, the company made an 厦门夜网 offer to acquire Yamei Energy, and completed the consolidation in August.
Due to the orderly progress of gas field development, the number of production wells has increased rapidly, which has driven Panzhuang. The natural gas extraction volume of the two major blockchains in Mabi has reached 7.
9.7 billion cubic meters, an annual increase of 23.
Due to the rapid growth of domestic natural gas consumption and relatively tight supply and demand, the average viscosity of coalbed methane has been changed from 1.
30 yuan / square increased to 1.
64 yuan / square.
Rising prices and prices have driven a substantial increase in Asian and American energy revenues (12.
580,000 yuan, +71.0%), the company confirms the coalbed methane mining business according to the consolidation time4.
Driven by the growth of traditional businesses and new businesses, the company achieved main business revenue in 201816.
32 trillion, an increase of 60.
(2) The discounted acquisitions increase the company’s performance, and the mergers and acquisitions result in increased expenses during the period, which is expected to fall in the future.
Affected by factors such as M & A domestic and external intermediary service fees, increase in employee compensation caused by consolidated statements, and termination of labor contract compensation, etc., the company’s management costs reached 2 in 2018.
63 ppm, an increase of 514.
8%, accounting for 16 of operating income.
1%, an increase of 11.
As a result of the use of cash acquisitions, the company raised financing by USD 1.5 billion.
The corresponding interest rate expense increased to 1.
30 ppm, financial expenses increased substantially.
Considering the completion of the acquisition and abundant cash flow to ensure the repayment plan, we believe that the expense ratio in the future period will facilitate the fall to normal levels.
Discounted mergers and acquisitions offset the adverse effects of increased one-time expenses.
Company with 1.
75 Destroyed / Shares Acquired 50 of Amer Energy.
5% equity, because the purchase price is lower than the net asset value, corresponding to the recognition of non-operating income2.
The non-operating income brought by discounted purchases must have been expanded to the one-time expense centralized confirmation and brought about adverse effects, leading to the differentiation of net profit growth trends before and after deductions.
The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in 20183.
350,000 yuan, an increase of 26.
9%; net profit after return to mother 2.
10 megabits, budget 11.
(3) Natural gas supply and demand are still tight, and there is ample room for future growth. Natural gas supply and demand are tight in 2019, and we are optimistic about the company’s business growth space.
According to the prediction of relevant agencies, natural gas consumption in 2019 will reach 308 billion cubic meters, an annual increase of 11%.
4%; corresponding output is only 170.8 billion cubic meters, an increase of 8.
We expect natural gas prices to remain stable under tight supply and demand patterns.
As the company’s upstream and downstream businesses expand steadily, the company expects to mine coalbed methane in 20198.
8.1 billion cubic meters, city gas supply 6.
9.8 billion cubic meters; plans to achieve 2.5 billion operating income and net profit5.
The replacement filing system for coalbed methane cooperation projects is beneficial to the company’s business development.
The National Development and Reform Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of China (NDRC) and the Energy Bureau will approve the overall development plan for oil and gas foreign cooperation projects (ODP), simplify the project process, reduce the construction cycle of the project, and strengthen the independent decision-making power of the resources.
The company has leading mining technology and has many years of cooperation experience with China United Coal and PetroChina.
Against the background of deepening the opening up of natural gas, the company can use its existing foundation to deepen business cooperation, which is conducive to the development of new regions in the future.
3.Investment suggestion As a city gas leader in Xinjiang, the traditional business has grown steadily.
Regarding the coalbed methane mining business, with the relatively tight supply and demand of natural gas in 2019, the development of conversion gas fields has promoted the strong growth of coalbed methane revenue.
Although the merger and acquisition caused the company’s management expenses to increase significantly in 2018, it is expected to fall back to normal levels in the future.
We predict that the company will have an EPS of 2 in 2019 and 2020.
91 yuan, 3.
75 yuan, the current total corresponds to 14.
0 times, 10.
9x, maintaining the company’s “recommended” rating.
Risks suggest that the downstream demand growth is lower than expected; the cost of unconventional gas development is too high or the output is not up to expectations; the terminal price may be lowered.